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style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff086\uff09\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u201c\u662f\u6307\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u72b6\u51b5\u53d8\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8ba9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53d8\u597d\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6982\u5ff5,\u53c8\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5e15\u96f7\u6258\u6548\u5e94 \u201d\u3002\u5176\u4e3b\u5f20\u4e3a\uff1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u3001\u6295\u5165\u548c\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u5927\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u4ea7\u51fa\u6216\u916c\u52b3\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u6709\u8fdd\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u7684\u671f\u671b\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6548\u5e94\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u547d\u540d\uff0c\u598280\/20\u6cd5\u5219\u3001\u6700\u7701\u529b\u6cd5\u5219\u3001\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u539f\u5219,\u5e15\u7d2f\u6258\u6cd5\u5219\u7b49\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5934\u8111\u98ce\u66b4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff081\uff09\u6a2a\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u2014\u201c\u5229\u7528\u63a8\u7406\u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u521b\u610f\u7684\u95f4\u63a5\u624b\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u529e\u6cd5\u672a\u5fc5\u90a3\u4e48\u76f4\u89c2\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u7275\u6d89\u5230\u4f20\u7edf\u5faa\u5e8f\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff082\uff09\u53d1\u6563\u601d\u7ef4\u4e0e\u6536\u655b\u601d\u7ef4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u201c\u53d1\u6563\u601d\u7ef4\uff08Divergent Thinking\uff09\uff0c\u53c8\u79f0\u8f90\u5c04\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u653e\u5c04\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u6269\u6563\u601d\u7ef4\u6216\u6c42\u5f02\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u5927\u8111\u5728\u601d\u7ef4\u65f6\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5bfb\u627e\u4f17\u591a\u53ef\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u6269\u6563\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u601d\u7ef4\u89c6\u91ce\u5e7f\u9614\uff0c\u601d\u7ef4\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u591a\u7ef4\u53d1\u6563\u72b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u6536\u655b\u601d\u7ef4\uff08ConvergentThinking\uff09\u53c8\u79f0\u805a\u5408\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u6c42\u540c\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u8f90\u96c6\u601d\u7ef4\u6216\u96c6\u4e2d\u601d\u7ef4\u3002\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u4f7f\u601d\u7ef4\u59cb\u7ec8\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4f7f\u601d\u7ef4\u6761\u7406\u5316\u3001\u7b80\u660e\u5316\u3001\u903b\u8f91\u5316\u3001\u89c4\u5f8b\u5316\u3002\u6536\u655b\u601d\u7ef4\u4e0e\u53d1\u6563\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u2018\u4e00\u4e2a\u94b1\u5e01\u7684\u4e24\u9762\u2019\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u7acb\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u4e92\u8865\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u504f\u5e9f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">3\uff09\u7fa4\u805a\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u201c\u7ef4\u6301\u6301\u7eed\u6838\u94fe\u5f0f\u53cd\u5e94\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6700\u5c11\u6838\u71c3\u6599\u201d\u201c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u540d\u8bcd\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u91cc\uff0c\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5df2\u8fbe\u81f3\u4e00\u4e2a\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u52a8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u80fd\u591f\u81ea\u6211\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u5f80\u540e\u7684\u6210\u957f\u63d0\u4f9b\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">4\uff09\u6d3b\u5316\u80fd\u2014\u201c\u6d3b\u5316\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5316\u5b66\u540d\u8bcd\uff0c\u53c8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u9608\u80fd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u540d\u8bcd\u662f\u7531\u963f\u745e\u5c3c\u58eb\u57281889\u5e74\u5f15\u5165\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e00\u4e2a\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6240\u9700\u8981\u514b\u670d\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u969c\u788d\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">5\uff09\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u2014\u201c\u80fd\u900f\u8fc7\u63d0\u4f9b\u53e6\u4e00\u6d3b\u5316\u80fd\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u9014\u5f84\u800c\u52a0\u5feb\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u901f\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u7ec4\u6210\u548c\u5316\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u5728\u53c2\u52a0\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u524d\u540e\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u7269\u8d28\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">6\uff09\u6760\u6746\u201c\u901a\u8fc7\u5229\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u3001\u673a\u68b0\u8bbe\u5907\u6216\u8005\u673a\u5668\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u529b\u7684\u653e\u5927\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">7\uff09\u4f17\u5305\u2014\u00a0\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u00a0\u201c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ece\u4e00\u5927\u7fa4\u4eba\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7ebf\u793e\u533a\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5458\u5de5\u6216\u8005\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u5f81\u96c6\u8d21\u732e\u83b7\u5f97\u6240\u9700\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u60f3\u6cd5\u6216\u8005\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u6216\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u96c6\u7ed3\u4f17\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u8fdb\u800c\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u4ece\u8bb8\u591a\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u96c6\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u5728\u7ec6\u83cc\u3001\u52a8\u7269\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u591a\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u534f\u5546\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6a21\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u2014\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u5bfb\u6c42\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\uff1a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u8868\u8ff0\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6536\u96c6\u3001\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u6784\u6210\u4e0e\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u2014\u201c\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u56e2\u4f53\u6216\u6570\u636e\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u5f0f\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u9002\u5f53\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u5f85\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u201c\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee\uff08Survivorship bias\uff09\uff0c\u53c8\u53eb\u505a\u751f\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee\u6216\u5b58\u6d3b\u8005\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u9a73\u65a5\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u8c2c\u8bef\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u88ab\u9a73\u65a5\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u8c2c\u8bef\u6307\u7684\u662f\u53ea\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u7ecf\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u7b5b\u9009\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7b5b\u9009\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u88ab\u7b5b\u9009\u6389\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u522b\u540d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u2018\u6c89\u9ed8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u2019\u3001\u2018\u6b7b\u4eba\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8bf4\u8bdd\u2019\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u539f\u7406\uff08Uncertainty principle\uff0c\u53c8\u79f0\u6d4b\u4e0d\u51c6\u539f\u7406\uff09\u7531\u6d77\u68ee\u5821\u4e8e1927\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c92\u5b50\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u5b83\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u7c92\u5b50\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u5927\u4e8e\u6216\u7b49\u4e8e\u666e\u6717\u514b\u65af\u5e38\u6570\u9664\u4e8e2\u03c0\uff08\u0394x\u0394p\u2265h\/2\u03c0\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5fae\u89c2\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7c92\u5b50\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u7269\u8d28\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u89e3\u91ca\uff08Interpreting\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u2014\u201c\u662f\u6307\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6216\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u7ea7\u522b\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ea7\u522b\u4e4b\u95f4\u4fdd\u6301\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u201d\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\uff1a\u903c\u8fd1\u7684\u9636\uff1b\u5c01\u5e95\u8ba1\u7b97\u2014 back-of-the-envelope calculations (BotEC)\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u7531\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u6069\u91cc\u79d1 \u00b7\u8d39\u7c73\u521b\u9020\uff0c\u6307\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u5230\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u624b\u8fb9\u968f\u4fbf\u7684\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c0f\u7eb8\u7247\u2014\u2014\u6bd4\u5982\u4fe1\u5c01\u7684\u80cc\u9762\u4e0a\u2014\u2014\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u4f5c\u540c\u4e00\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u5185\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u6c42\u89e3\uff1b\u91cf\u7eb2\u5206\u6790\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0e\u6b21\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u2014\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u6b21\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u53ea\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u3002\uff08\u76f8\u5173\uff1a\u4e00\u9636\u6548\u5e94\u4e0e\u6b21\u9636\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u4e00\u9636\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u6307\u539f\u56e0\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u6b21\u9636\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u6307\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u9636\u6548\u5e94\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u2014\u201c\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u6839\u636e\u76f8\u5173\u6761\u4ef6\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u67d0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bd4\u65b9\u8bf4\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u67d0\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u60a3\u764c\u75c7\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u77e5\u9053\u6b64\u4eba\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u3002\u5982\u679c\u764c\u75c7\u4e0e\u5e74\u9f84\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5219\u6839\u636e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u6b64\u4eba\u5e74\u9f84\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u4f30\u7b97\u5176\u60a3\u764c\u75c7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u2014\u201c\u6307\u53d8\u91cf\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e2d\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u6781\u7aef\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u6d4b\u91cf\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u2014\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u662f\u6307\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f97\u5230\u67d0\u79cd\u4e1c\u897f\u800c\u6240\u8981\u653e\u5f03\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u6700\u5927\u4ef7\u503c\uff1b\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u65b9\u6848\u62e9\u4e00\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u88ab\u820d\u5f03\u7684\u9009\u9879\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u503c\u8005\u662f\u672c\u6b21\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff1b\u8fd8\u6307\u5382\u5546\u628a\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u6295\u5165\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u5f53\u4e2d\u53bb\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u5c40\u90e8\u6700\u4f18\u4e0e\u5168\u5c40\u6700\u4f18\u2014\u201c\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u662f\u6307\u5728\u4e34\u8fd1\u89e3\u96c6\u5408\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f18\uff08\u6700\u5927\u6216\u8005\u6700\u5c0f\uff09\u89e3\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u662f\u5168\u5c40\u6700\u4f18\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u89e3\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u90bb\u8fd1\u503c\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u51b3\u7b56\u6811\u2014\u201c\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u56fe\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u8d44\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u548c\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c \u7528\u6765\u521b\u5efa\u5230\u8fbe\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u3002\u51b3\u7b56\u6811\u5efa\u7acb\u5e76\u7528\u6765\u8f85\u52a9\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u6811\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u6c89\u6ca1\u6210\u672c\u2014\u201c\u662f\u6307\u7531\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7531\u73b0\u5728\u6216\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u51b3\u7b56\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff085\uff09\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u2014\u201c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6613\u5f97\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u6216\u6613\u5f97\u6027\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u662f\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u6839\u636e\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u7684\u6613\u5f97\u6027\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8fc7\u4e8e\u770b\u91cd\u81ea\u5df1\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u6216\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5ea6\u53d1\u6398\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9020\u6210\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff086\uff09\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\u2014\u201c\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5bfb\u627e\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u52a0\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u628a\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5f80\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff087\uff09\u538c\u6076\u98ce\u9669\u2014\u201c\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u9762\u5bf9\u540c\u6837\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u635f\u5931\u66f4\u52a0\u4ee4\u4ed6\u4eec\u96be\u4ee5\u5fcd\u53d7\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u63a8\u7406<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u865a\u5047\u539f\u56e0\u2014\u201c\u5047\u5b9a\u4e8b\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6216\u53ef\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u610f\u5473\u7740\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u6ed1\u5761\u8c2c\u8bef\u2014\u201c\u6ed1\u5761\u8c2c\u8bef\u7684\u5178\u578b\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e3a\u2018\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u751fA\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751fB\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751fC\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751fD\uff0c\u2026\u2026\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751fZ\u2019\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u660e\u793a\u6216\u6697\u793a\u5730\u63a8\u8bba\u2018Z\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u5141\u8bb8A\u53d1\u751f\u2019\u3002A\u81f3B\u3001B\u81f3C\u3001C\u81f3D\u3001\u2026\u2026\u7b49\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u597d\u4f3c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u2018\u5761\u2019\uff0c\u4eceA\u63a8\u8bba\u81f3Z\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ed1\u5761\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u975e\u9ed1\u5373\u767d\u2014\u201c\u63d0\u51fa\u5c11\u6570\u9009\u9879\uff08\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e09\u4e2a\u6216\u66f4\u591a\uff09\u8981\u4eba\u4ece\u4e2d\u62e9\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9009\u62e9\u5e76\u672a\u6db5\u76d6\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u975e\u9ed1\u5373\u767d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u5f62\u5f0f\u8c2c\u8bef\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u4ece\u4f17\u9519\u8bef\u2014\u201c\u6307\u5f53\u4e2a\u4f53\u53d7\u5230\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff08\u5f15\u5bfc\u6216\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u4f1a\u6000\u7591\u5e76\u6539\u53d8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3001\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u671d\u7740\u4e0e\u7fa4\u4f53\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u534f\u5546<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u6545\u4e8b\u2014\u201c\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u7acb\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u4eba\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u6765\u8bb2\u8ff0\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u7248\u672c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u5f97\u5230\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u540c\u610f\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u79ef\u6781\u503e\u542c\u2014\u201c\u503e\u542c\u8005\u5168\u795e\u8d2f\u6ce8\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u54cd\u5e94\u5e76\u4e14\u8bb0\u4f4f\u5bf9\u65b9\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u8c08\u5224\u534f\u8bae\u6700\u4f73\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff08BATNA\uff09\u2014\u201c\u8c08\u5224\u534f\u8bae\u6700\u4f73\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5047\u5982\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u4e0d\u6210\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u6240\u5728\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9664\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8c08\u5224\u8005\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u5c3d\u91cf\u5c06\u8c08\u5224\u8c08\u6210\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u653e\u5f03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9BATNA\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u51b3\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u5e95\u7ebf\u6216\u8005\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5728\u54ea\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8c08\u5224\u6761\u4ef6\u90fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u4ed6\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u201c\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\uff08zero-sum game\uff09\uff0c\u53c8\u79f0\u96f6\u548c\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u4e0e\u975e\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u76f8\u5bf9\uff0c\u662f\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5c5e\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u535a\u5f08\u3002\u6307\u53c2\u4e0e\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u5404\u65b9\uff0c\u5728\u4e25\u683c\u7ade\u4e89\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5fc5\u7136\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u535a\u5f08\u5404\u65b9\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\u76f8\u52a0\u603b\u548c\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e3a\u2018\u96f6\u2019\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u975e\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0b\u7684\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u535a\u5f08\u4e2d\u5404\u65b9\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u6216\u635f\u5931\u7684\u603b\u548c\u4e0d\u662f\u96f6\u503c\uff0c\u5b83\u533a\u522b\u4e8e\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u3002\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6bd4\u8f83\u6709\u7528\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u51b5\u65f6\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u635f\u5931\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u76f8\u7b49\uff0c\u8fde\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5e78\u798f\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f24\u5bb3\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u635f\u4eba\u4e0d\u5229\u5df1\u201d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u535a\u5f08\u53cc\u65b9\u5b58\u5728 \u201c\u53cc\u8d62\u201d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u8fbe\u6210\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff085\uff09\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u2014\u201c\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u201d\u662f1950\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6885\u91cc\u5c14\u00b7\u5f17\u52d2\u5fb7\uff08Merrill Flood\uff09\u548c\u6885\u5c14\u6587\u00b7\u5fb7\u96f7\u5e0c\u5c14\uff08Melvin Dresher\uff09\u62df\u5b9a\u51fa\u76f8\u5173\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u7531\u987e\u95ee\u827e\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5854\u514b\uff08Albert Tucker\uff09\u4ee5\u56da\u5f92\u65b9\u5f0f\u9610\u8ff0\uff0c\u5e76\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u2018\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u2019\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e24\u4e2a\u5171\u8c0b\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u4eba\u88ab\u5173\u5165\u76d1\u72f1\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e92\u76f8\u6c9f\u901a\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u63ed\u53d1\u5bf9\u65b9\uff0c\u5219\u7531\u4e8e\u8bc1\u636e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5750\u7262\u4e00\u5e74\uff1b\u82e5\u4e00\u4eba\u63ed\u53d1\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4eba\u6c89\u9ed8\uff0c\u5219\u63ed\u53d1\u8005\u56e0\u4e3a\u7acb\u529f\u800c\u7acb\u5373\u83b7\u91ca\uff0c\u6c89\u9ed8\u8005\u56e0\u4e0d\u5408\u4f5c\u800c\u5165\u72f1\u4e94\u5e74\uff1b\u82e5\u4e92\u76f8\u63ed\u53d1\uff0c\u5219\u56e0\u8bc1\u636e\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u90fd\u5224\u5211\u4e24\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u56da\u5f92\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fe1\u4efb\u5bf9\u65b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e92\u76f8\u63ed\u53d1\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u5b88\u6c89\u9ed8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff086\uff09\u4fdd\u7559\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff08Preserving Optionality\u200a\uff09\u2014\u201c\u4fdd\u7559\u7075\u6d3b\u9009\u62e9\u6743\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u524d\u514b\u5236\u592a\u5feb\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7ba1\u7406<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff081\uff09\u76ae\u683c\u9a6c\u5229\u7fc1\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u201c\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u67d0\u79cd\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u77e5\u89c9\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6216\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u4f1a\u4f7f\u8be5\u60c5\u5883\u4ea7\u751f\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e00\u671f\u671b\u6216\u9884\u8a00\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff082\uff09\u6210\u957f\u578b\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08Growth Mindset\uff09\u4e0e\u56fa\u5b9a\u578b\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08Fixed Mindset\uff09\u2014\u201c\u5173\u4e8e\u667a\u529b\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u7c7b\uff0c\u5373\u5361\u7f57\u5c14\u00b7\u5fb7\u97e6\u514b\uff08Carol Dweck\uff09\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6210\u957f\u5fc3\u6001\u4e0e\u56fa\u5b9a\u5fc3\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u6210\u957f\u5fc3\u6001\u6307\u7684\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u667a\u529b\u662f\u53ef\u5851\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u6539\u5584\u7684\u3002\u56fa\u5b9a\u5fc3\u6001\u5219\u662f\u6307\u8ba4\u4e3a\u667a\u529b\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u800c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u3002\u6210\u957f\u5fc3\u6001\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u5fc3\u6001\u8005\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6210\u529f\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5148\u5929\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u5c06\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u51b3\u7b56\u3001\u6bc5\u529b\u7b49\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6210\u957f\u5fc3\u6001\u8005\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5b66\u4e1a\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u96be\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u5fc3\u6001\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bb9\u6613\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u632b\u6298\u540e\uff0c\u6210\u957f\u5fc3\u6001\u8005\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u575a\u6301\uff0c\u800c\u56fa\u5b9a\u5fc3\u6001\u8005\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5b66\u4e60\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u8bef\u2014\u201c\u6307\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u5f97\u77e5\u67d0\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\u540e\uff0c\u5938\u5927\u539f\u5148\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u4fd7\u8bed\u79f0\u2018\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u2019\u3002\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u2018\u65e9\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u2019\u3002\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bb0\u5fc6\u5931\u771f\uff0c\u56de\u5fc6\u4e0e\u91cd\u5efa\u5185\u5bb9\u65f6\u4ea7\u751f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u679c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u9ad8\u8bed\u5883\u4e0e\u4f4e\u8bed\u5883\u6587\u5316\u2014\u201c<strong>\u6240\u8c13\u9ad8\u8bed\u5883\u6587\u5316<\/strong>\u662f\u6307\u5728\u6b64\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4ea4\u9645\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ea4\u9645\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u521b\u9020\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u8bed\u8a00\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u573a\u5408\uff0c\u5373\u4ea4\u9645\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u521b\u9020\u4e0d\u662f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4ea4\u9645\u8bed\u8a00\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4ea4\u9645\u8bed\u5883\u3002\u50cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u6587\u5316\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u6587\u5316\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u6587\u5316\u3001\u62c9\u4e01\u6587\u5316\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u9ad8\u8bed\u5883\u6587\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u8c13\u4f4e\u8bed\u5883\u6587\u5316(Low 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Peter)\u5728\u5bf9\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u4eba\u5458\u664b\u5347\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u73b0\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1b\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e60\u60ef\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u7b49\u7ea7\u4e0a\u79f0\u804c\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u8fdb\u884c\u664b\u5347\u63d0\u62d4 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Advantage\u200a\uff09\u2014\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u5728\u62e5\u6709\u8f83\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e0b\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u90fd\u6709\u5229\u3002\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a\u9759\u6001\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u65b9\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u95f4\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u56fd\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u9879\u751f\u4ea7\u65f6\u6240\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u6bd4\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u9879\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff087\uff09\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7834\u574f\u2014\u5f53\u666f\u6c14\u5faa\u73af\u5230\u8c37\u5e95\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u201c\u521b\u65b0\u201d\u4ee5\u6c42\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5c06\u591a\u4f59\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\u7b5b\u9664\u6216\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u201c\u521b\u65b0\u201d\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u4f7f\u666f\u6c14\u63d0\u5347\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f53\u67d0\u4e00\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53c8\u91cd\u65b0\u662f\u6709\u5229\u53ef\u56fe\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b83\u53c8\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u65b0\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u5229\u6da6\u9012\u51cf\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u56de\u5230\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u72b6\u6001&#8230;.\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u8427\u6761\u90fd\u5305\u62ec\u8457\u4e00\u6b21\u6280\u672f\u9769\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u9648\u8ff0\u4e3a\uff1a\u6280\u672f\u9769\u65b0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4fbf\u662f\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8427\u6761\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5236\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff081\uff09\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf\u2014\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e00\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u80dc\u8fc7\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\uff082\uff09<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/thinking-model\/ability-to-circle.html\">\u80fd\u529b\u5708<\/a>\u2014\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u6295\u8d44\u6210\u529f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u80fd\u529b\u5708\u539f\u5219\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u771f\u6b63\u9700\u8981\u5177\u5907\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u6240\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fdb\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8bf7\u7279\u522b\u6ce8\u610f\u2018\u6240\u9009\u62e9\u2019\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff0c\u4f60\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u6653\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bb6\u6216\u8005\u8bb8\u591a\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u8bc4\u4f30\u5728\u4f60\u80fd\u529b\u5708\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5185\u7684\u51e0\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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style=\"font-size:16px\">\u642d\u4fbf\u8f66\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u201c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u4ea7\u4e0a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u662f\u6307\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u67d0\u4e2a\u4f53\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u8d85\u51fa\u4ed6\u7684\u516c\u5141\u4efd\u989d\uff0c\u6216\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u5c11\u4e8e\u4ed6\u5e94\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u516c\u5141\u4efd\u989d\u3002\u6307\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u67d0\u79cd\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u4ea7\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5148\u5ba3\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u5e76\u65e0\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u5728\u522b\u4eba\u4ed8\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\u53bb\u53d6\u5f97\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4e0d\u52b3\u800c\u83b7\u7684\u4eab\u53d7\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\">\u5e38\u6307\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u516c\u5171\u54c1\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u95ee\u9898\u201d\uff1b\u79d1\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u2014\u201c\u7531\u7f57\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u79d1\u65af\uff08Ronald Coase\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6027\u6216\u66f0\u975e\u6548\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5f53\u4e8b\u4eba\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u7ea0\u6b63\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8fbe\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u6548\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u5316\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u65e0\u8c13\u635f\u5931\u2014\u201c\u53c8\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u51c0\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u672a\u5904\u4e8e\u6700\u4f18\u8fd0\u884c\u72b6\u6001\u800c\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c, \u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u504f\u79bb\u7ade\u4e89\u5747\u8861\u65f6\uff0c \u6240\u635f\u5931\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5269\u4f59\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u5269\u4f59\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6295\u8d44<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09FOMO\uff08\u5bb3\u6015\u9519\u8fc7\uff09\u2014\u201c\u7279\u6307\u90a3\u79cd\u603b\u5728\u62c5\u5fc3\u5931\u53bb\u6216\u9519\u8fc7\u4ec0\u4e48\u7684\u7126\u8651\u5fc3\u60c5\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u2018\u5c40\u5916\u4eba\u56f0\u5883\u2019\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u65e0\u6cd5\u62d2\u7edd\u4efb\u4f55\u9080\u7ea6\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u9519\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0e\u6709\u52a9\u4eba\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u201d\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e5f\u6709FOMO\u6050\u60e7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u2014\u201c\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u6216\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u4e1a\u52a1\u91cf\u4e0e\u4fdd\u672c\u4e1a\u52a1\u91cf\u7684\u5dee\u91cf\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u3002\u8d22\u52a1\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u662f\u6307\u6b63\u5e38\u9500\u552e\u989d\u8d85\u8fc7\u76c8\u4e8f\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9500\u552e\u989d\u7684\u5dee\u989d\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u660e\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u591a\u5c11\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u4e0d\u81f4\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u6295\u673a\u2014\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u8d22\u52a1\uff08\u91d1\u878d\uff09\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5404\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u8d22\u52a1\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u672c\u91d1\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u53ef\u8fbe\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u9884\u4f30\uff0c\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u90a3\u4e9b\u9884\u671f\u6709\u6240\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6807\u7684\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u7acb\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\uff0c\u50cf\u672a\u7ecf\u5206\u6790\u3001\u4e14\u5728\u672c\u91d1\u53ca\u56de\u62a5\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u63e1\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u8005\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6295\u673a\u3001\u6216\u8d4c\u535a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/thinking-model\/compound-interest-thinking-model.html\">\u590d\u5229<\/a>\u2014\u201c\u6307\u5728\u6bcf\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u606f\u671f\u540e\uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u5c06\u6240\u751f\u5229\u606f\u52a0\u5165\u672c\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0b\u671f\u7684\u5229\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u606f\u671f\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u606f\u671f\u7684\u5229\u606f\u90fd\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u751f\u606f\u7684\u672c\u91d1\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u5229\u751f\u5229\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4fd7\u79f0\u7684\u2018\u5229\u6eda\u5229\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b66\u4e60<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madewill.com\/thinking-model\/deliberate-practice.html\">\u523b\u610f\u7ec3\u4e60<\/a>\u2014\u201c\u7531\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\uff08Florida State University\uff09\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 K. Anders Ericsson\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u8fd9\u5957\u7ec3\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ea7\u6c34\u5e73\u662f\u9010\u6e10\u5730\u7ec3\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u6548\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u5c0f\u4efb\u52a1\u8ba9\u53d7\u8bad\u8005\u6309\u987a\u5e8f\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c0f\u4efb\u52a1\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u53d7\u8bad\u8005\u6b63\u597d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u505a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53c8\u6b63\u597d\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u3002\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec3\u4e60\u8981\u6c42\u53d7\u8bad\u8005\u601d\u60f3\u9ad8\u5ea6\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f8b\u884c\u516c\u4e8b\u6216\u8005\u5e26\u5a31\u4e50\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u7ec3\u4e60\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u5192\u5145\u8005\u7efc\u5408\u5f81\u2014\u201c\u67d0\u4e9b\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u6700\u80fd\u5e72\u3001\u6700\u806a\u660e\u4e5f\u6700\u52e4\u594b\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u906d\u53d7\u7740\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee4\u4eba\u8870\u5f31\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6ca1\u80fd\u529b\u4e0d\u806a\u660e\u8fd8\u5f88\u61d2\u60f0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u786e\u4fe1\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6210\u529f\u90fd\u9760\u4f2a\u88c5\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u7ec8\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u9762\u5177\u4f1a\u88ab\u4eba\u62c6\u7a7f\uff0c\u88ab\u5f53\u505a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc3\u76ee\u4e2d\u7684\u9a97\u5b50\u66dd\u5149\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u73b0\u8c61\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u5192\u5145\u8005\u7efc\u5408\u5f81(imposter syndrome)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b63\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\u6323\u624e\u7684\u4eba\u6df1\u4fe1\u4e0d\u7591\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u806a\u660e\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u611a\u5f04\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u6700\u5148\u7531\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Pauline Rose Clance\u548cSuzanne Imes\u57281978\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u201c\u8fbe\u514b\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u80fd\u529b\u6b20\u7f3a\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u6b20\u8003\u8651\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5f97\u51fa\u9519\u8bef\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6b63\u786e\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u8fa8\u522b\u9519\u8bef\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80fd\u529b\u6b20\u7f3a\u8005\u4eec\u6c89\u6d78\u5728\u81ea\u6211\u8425\u9020\u7684\u865a\u5e7b\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5374\u65e0\u6cd5\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u95f4\u9694\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u201c\u6bd4\u8d77\u77ed\u5ef6\u8fdf\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u591a\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u63a5\u89e6\uff0c\u957f\u5ef6\u8fdf\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5c11\u6b21\u63a5\u89e6\u6709\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4ea6\u79f0\u5ef6\u8fdf\u6548\u5e94\uff08Lag Effect\uff09\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u751f\u7269\u5b66<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u2014\u201c\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u6216\u526f\u4ea7\u7269\u5bfc\u81f4\u53d1\u751f\u989d\u5916\u53cd\u5e94\u8fdb\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u94fe\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9\u2014\u201c\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u6307\u751f\u7269\u5728\u751f\u5b58\u6597\u4e89\u4e2d\u9002\u8005\u751f\u5b58\u3001\u4e0d\u9002\u8005\u88ab\u6dd8\u6c70\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u7531\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff083\uff09\u201c\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94\uff08The Butterfly Effect\uff09\u662f\u6307\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u80fd\u5e26\u52a8\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u957f\u671f\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6df7\u6c8c\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff084\uff09\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u2014\u201c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u957f\u4e45\u7ef4\u6301\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6216\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff085\uff09\u949f\u5f62\u66f2\u7ebf\u2014\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u7269\u53d1\u5c55\u90fd\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\u540e\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u6c38\u8fdc\u53bb\u5bfb\u627e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u54f2\u5b66<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff081\uff09\u6548\u679c\u8bba\u2014\u201c\u5728\u9053\u5fb7\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e2d\u4e3b\u5f20\u6839\u636e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u540e\u679c\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4e0e\u201c\u52a8\u673a\u8bba\u201d\u76f8\u5bf9\u3002\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5584\u6076\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6548\u679c\uff1b\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u8bc4\u4ef7\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5584\u6076\uff0c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8003\u5bdf\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u770b\u5b83\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u5272\u88c2\u4e86\u52a8\u673a\u4e0e\u6548\u679c\u7684\u8fa9\u8bc1\u7edf\u4e00\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u7247\u9762\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff082\uff09\u5206\u914d\u6b63\u4e49\u4e0e\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6b63\u4e49\u2014\u201c\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e9a\u91cc\u65af\u591a\u5fb7\u5c06\u6b63\u4e49\u5206\u4e3a\u5206\u914d\u6b63\u4e49\u3001\u6821\u6b63\u6b63\u4e49\uff08 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